What To Expect from NATO’s New Strategic Concept
Tacan ILDEM, Ambassador (R), Chairman of EDAM,
Member of NATO 2030 Experts Group
NATO Summit will convene at Heads of State and Government level on 29-30 June in Madrid. The leaders will agree on NATO’s new Strategic Concept which is a future oriented policy document that will guide the Alliance towards the 2030s. Here are some reflections on what to expect from this new Strategic Concept.
- NATO Allies share the common values that are enshrined in the preamble of the Washington Treaty. The new Strategic Concept should give Allies the opportunity to renew their commitment to democracy, individual liberties and the rule of law. This is especially important at a time when the distinction between democracies and autocracies are becoming more pronounced in a systemic competition that we are in.
- The statement regarding the supposed NATO “brain dead” implied complaints on the level of consultations among Allies, though ironically such a statement was coming from the leader of an Allied nation whose longstanding position was not to use NATO as the venue for consultations on all security related issues. If there is a genuine change in this position it is a welcome development. The Strategic Concept should be an occasion for Allies to pledge their readiness to use NATO more as an essential and unique forum for transatlantic consultations to address the full spectrum of national-security issues facing NATO members and any matter that affects the security of the Euro-Atlantic area even if NATO may not be the first responder but in which Allies’ equities are involved.
- The current strategic environment is different than the one reflected in 2010 Strategic Concept. Indeed Euro-Atlantic area is no longer in peace. Russia and terrorism will remain to be the main threats that NATO will face in the foreseeable future.
- On Russia, the new Strategic Concept should go beyond what has to be said regarding the ongoing Russian war on Ukraine. In the future when circumstances permit Russia will be part of the new European security architecture. For this Russia’s behavior will be determinant. Legitimate security concerns of Russia, like any other European state, will be taken into account. However this would not legitimize any expectation of Russia to revisit and renegotiate the fundamental principles that underpin the European security as enshrined in the UN Charter and the founding documents of the OSCE. Until such time NATO should ensure the effectiveness of its deterrence and defence policies by raising the costs of the Russian aggression and develop a more comprehensive response to all forms of Russian aggression in different operational domains without neglecting Russia’s hybrid tactics. The present security environment necessitates NATO to give priority to boosting collective defence, nevertheless these efforts should not be to the expense of its 360-degree approach. In other words, threats and challenges from all directions should be the focus of NATO’s activities.
- Terrorism, in all its forms and manifestations, still poses one of the most immediate, asymmetric threats to Allied nations and citizens. NATO should more explicitly integrate the fight against terrorism into its three core tasks. NATO Allies should elevate intelligence-sharing among themselves to achieve better situational awareness in key areas including emerging safe havens and terrorists’ use of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs), as well as hybrid tactics. Solidarity among allies will remain to be key in fight against terrorism. NATO Allies should impersonalize the scourge of terrorism and need to elevate cooperation and solidarity among themselves. In this spirit, while trying to achieve the goal of ensuring the accession of NATO’s valued partners Finland and Sweden as members, ally Turkey’s legitimate security concerns, especially those related to fighting terrorism, should be addressed in a satisfactory manner.
- China’s growing influence and international policies present both challenges and opportunities that NATO needs to address. China’s growing economic heft and military might with ambitious goals that it strives to achieve with its increasing presence and influence in the Euro-Atlantic area and its geographical vicinity necessitates the existing and potential challenges to be addressed by Allies in a systematic manner. Nevertheless opportunities in areas like arms control and disarmament and climate change should also be explored and leveraged. Appropriate NATO engagement with China is necessary.
- EDTs in the evolving security environment where systemic competition is felt more and more is becoming a game changer. EDTs serve both as a force and thread multiplier. NATO should maintain its technological edge in this time of systemic rivalry. The gap between those Allied nations possessing technologies and those who are not is wide and needs to be redressed. In order to maintain the technological edge over the rivals and adversaries and to promote interoperability there should be a new “Transatlantic Deal” by which Allies commit themselves to in military-technological relationships and technology share with purposeful joint-ventures. This will limit the eventuality that Allies who are denied procurement of key technologies go to sources outside NATO.
- Resilience has become a key societal feature that each Allied nation should boost in the present complex security environment, especially when more space is being contested physically, as the line between peace, crisis and conflict continues to blur, with hybrid attacks that include cyber activities and disinformation and subversion posing serious challenges to our democracies. Resilience, which is addressed in article 3 of the Washington Treaty should once again be highlighted in the new Strategic Concept without a need to make it a new core task.
- In the evolving security environment with the same threats and challenges both organisations face NATO-EU partnership is not a choice but a necessity. “Strategic autonomy” that EU aspires should be understood as a “strategic responsibility” and should be developed in a spirit of NATO cohesion and with the aim of achieving a common vision of both organizations. The underlying principle is that NATO will remain as the cornerstone of the European defence. The EU initiatives like EDF and PESCO are welcome developments for strengthening EU’s strategic responsibility in having a fair share of burden in defending the European continent. The fullest involvement of the NATO Allies that are not members of the EU in such EU initiatives is essential for strategic partnership between the two To avoid duplication given the scarce resources to address the threats and challenges of the present security environment it would be essential to make a reference in the new Strategic Concept to the notion of “Reverse Berlin Plus” ensuring NATO assured access to the EU capabilities when needed provided that the EU does not decide to act on its own.
- Climate change is presenting a complex challenge for humanity. Environmental change has historically been part of NATO’s focus. NATO also addressed the topic in its 2010 Strategic Concept. Now NATO should dive deeper into this subject. In Secretary General Stoltenberg’s own words, “NATO’s core task is to keep us all safe. Climate change is making the world more unsafe. So to fulfill our main responsibility, NATO must help to curb climate change.” Allied countries are becoming increasingly aware of the nexus between climate change and security. But there is so much more work to be done in this field—and NATO, although not being a norm-setting institution, should set an example in achieving it.
- Madrid Summit meeting will take place at a time when Russia challenges the rules based international order. While NATO Allies face the existing and future threats and challenges the Summit should be an occasion to demonstrate the unity and cohesion among Allies and the cooperative spirit in engaging with partners.
